D3.

Did LA's mansion tax freeze the high-end market?

In 2023, Los Angeles put a 4-5.5% tax on property sales above $5 million. I tested whether it reduced high-value sales, using only public data and an analysis plan locked before any results were computed. Answer: sales fell by more than a third in the first year - but part of that was sellers rushing deals through early, the effect shrinks over time, and sellers now visibly price just under the $5M line.